Jack Kerwick’s analysis looks spot on. From Kerwick at lewrockwell.com:
There are several reasons for my judgment that it is Republican voters who will awake happily following the primary contests on Tuesday.
(1)The pollsters who have been telling us for months about a “blue wave” have abandoned this line altogether. Considering that the polls, being of a piece with the rest of the media, are in the majority of instances designed and administered by Democrats, the modest advantages that they show for their fellow Democrats should be taken as a hint that they know they are in trouble
(2)There are a few movements, like the “Walk Away” movement, whose founder is a gay man who is a former Democrat and which has already attracted hundreds of thousands of other former Democrats, that has received little to no coverage by most of the (Democrat-dominated) media. Yet both the rapidly growing size of this phenomenon as well as the media’s resolve to neglect it suggest that it indicates a pattern of increasing disenchantment with the Democratic Party;
(3)The Kavanaugh debacle;
(4)The “caravan” of thousands of undocumented invaders coming from the South that we’re all able to watch in real time;
(5)Leftist violence and intimidation;
(6)Even with over 90% tireless, negative coverage by the Democratic-controlled media, reputable polls have shown Trump’s popularity rating exceeding 50%. This in all likelihood means that it is actually much higher;
(7)Trump’s rallies continue to dwarf in size anything that any politician has managed to achieve. Obama’s crowd numbers are, at best, half that of Trump’s. The enthusiasm for the President is as high—higher—than it’s ever been. No Democrat, including the sainted Obama, generates any enthusiasm among the party’s base, much less a fraction of that which consumesTrump’s constituents;
(8)Because of the nastiness of Trump-haters and the fact that Trump-hatred is all of the rage within the popular culture, many people who sympathize with Trump, or at least who share none of the zealotry of those who would slice their own mothers’ throats to take him down, are not likely to reveal their willingness to vote Republican;
(9)Even among traditional Republican voters, pollsters are now informing us that they are significantly less likely than Democrats to openly share their voting preferences. And when it is considered that “independents” are even less likely than Republicans in this regard, “polls forecasting Democrat victories” should be seen for their questionable character;
(10)Aside from the biases of individual pollsters, there is an intrinsic bias in polling: In two significant respects, they are outdated:
First, unlike in times past, this generation, given the boundless sea of information (and misinformation) flowing from multiple, competing “news” sources that it has at its collective fingertips, is dramatically more skeptical toward those, like the pollsters, who are in any way affiliated with the media.
Second, since the rise of the cellphone, the attempt on the part of pollsters to do what they have always done and reach voters by phone has proven to be a formidable task indeed.
In other words, there is perhaps today a larger chasm separating the appearances conveyed by polls, on the one hand, and, on the other, the real world than there has ever been.
There is but one more reason for my confidence in a Red victory:
Both the President’s enemies as well as many of his supporters still have not grasped the significance of his victory two years ago. Their prognostications continue to reflect a mindset of an earlier era, a pre-Trump era, and they still refuse to accept that Trump is as world-historic a figure as they come.
Both Republican and Democratic commentators (and pollsters) have not figured out—doubtless, many don’t want to figure this out—that their old templates, scripts, models, and even the whole Republican/Democrat paradigm central to their worldview have been relegated by Trump to the same place to which he dispatched the Obamas, the Clintons, the Bushes, and the entire GAME (Government-Academia-Media-Entertainment complex): the trash heap of history.
If Republicans and those who Trump has made into Republican voters get to the polling stations tomorrow, the GOP will win handily.