A Decade Of… What Exactly? by Michael Every

Historians looking back on the decade now ending may well name it the decade of debt. From Michael Every at zerohedge.com:

Authored by Rabobank’s Michael Every

Summary

  • We are now close to the end of the year and the second decade of the 21st century
  • 2010-19 saw a marked difference between growth in developed and emerging markets – but both may be about to slow together
  • World Total Factor Productivity growth was virtually zero – and China’s performance crucial
  • 2010-19 was a decade of record high debt… following a global crisis created by too much debt
  • Absolute poverty levels continued to decline – yet there was increased in perceived insecurity and hardship in many developed markets
  • There was a major increase in global asset prices, especially of stocks and houses…
  • … and in inequality of wealth and income, even as gaps between states narrowed
  • Interest rates went up and then down again in developed markets, and bond yields fell to record lows; but emerging markets also saw rates and yields spike
  • The USD gained against most major FX crosses, and most so against struggling emerging markets
  • What do the 2020s hold for us if this was what the 2010s provided? China arguably holds the key on many fronts

A very mixed decade

We are now close to the end of the year and, given it is 2019, also of the second decade of the 21st century. That marks an opportune time to look backwards in order to then try to look forwards.

In many respects this has been a difficult decade – for example, what do we even refer to it as: “The twenty-tens” or “The twenty-teens”? Far more importantly, of course, the key developments seen over the last ten years present a very mixed picture. Some are certainly positive, and yet arguably more are deeply negative.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.