Tag Archives: Multipolarity

Entering a 1984 World, Trump-Style Or Implementing the Sino-Russian Blueprint for a Tripolar World Order, by Michael T. Klare

The thesis of this article is similar to that of SLL’s article, “Trump’s New World Order.” From Micheal T. Klare at tomdispatch.com:

The pundits and politicians generally take it for granted that President Trump lacks a coherent foreign policy. They believe that he acts solely out of spite, caprice, and political opportunism — lashing out at U.S. allies like Germany’s Angela Merkel and England’s Theresa May only to embrace authoritarian rulers like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. His instinctive rancor and impulsiveness seemed on full display during his recent trip to Europe, where he lambasted Merkel, undercut May, and then, in an extraordinary meeting with Putin, dismissed any concerns over Russian meddling in the 2016 American presidential election (before half-walking his own comments back).

“Nobody knows when Trump is doing international diplomacy and when he is doing election campaigning in Montana,” commented Danish defense minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen following the summit. “It is difficult to decode what policy the American president is promoting. There is a complete unpredictability in this.”

While that reaction may be typical, it’s a mistake to assume that Trump lacks a coherent foreign-policy blueprint. In fact, an examination of his campaign speeches and his actions since entering the Oval Office — including his appearance with Putin — reflect his adherence to a core strategic concept: the urge to establish a tripolar world order, one that was, curiously enough, first envisioned by Russian and Chinese leaders in 1997 and one that they have relentlessly pursued ever since.

Such a tripolar order — in which Russia, China, and the U.S. would each assume responsibility for maintaining stability within their own respective spheres of influence while cooperating to resolve disputes wherever those spheres overlap — breaks radically with the end-of-the-Cold-War paradigm. During those heady years, the United States was the dominant world power and lorded it over most of the rest of the planet with the aid of its loyal NATO allies.

To continue reading: Entering a 1984 World, Trump-Style Or Implementing the Sino-Russian Blueprint for a Tripolar World Order

The World Transformed and No One in America Noticed, by Martin Sieff

Nobody among US powers that be wants to admit that the transformation from US unipolarity to multipolarity has already happened. From Martin Sieff at strategic-culture.org:

The world transformed and nobody in the West noticed. India and Pakistan have joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The 17 year-old body since its founding on June 15, 2001 has quietly established itself as the main alliance and grouping of nations across Eurasia. Now it has expanded from six nations to eight, and the two new members are the giant nuclear-armed regional powers of South Asia, India, with a population of 1.324 billion and Pakistan, with 193.2 million people (both in 2016).

In other words, the combined population of the SCO powers or already well over 1.5 billion has virtually doubled at a single stroke.

The long-term global consequences of this development are enormous. It is likely to prove the single most important factor insuring peace and removing the threat of nuclear war over South Asia and from 20 percent of the human race. It now raises the total population of the world in the eight SCO nations to 40 percent, including one of the two most powerful thermonuclear armed nations (Russia) and three other nuclear powers (China, India and Pakistan).

This development is a diplomatic triumph especially for Moscow. Russia has been seeking for decades to ease its longtime close strategic ally India into the SCO umbrella. This vision was clearly articulated by one of Russia’s greatest strategic minds of the 20th century, former Premier and Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who died in 2015. In the past China quietly but steadfastly blocked the India’s accession, but with Pakistan, China’s ally joining at the same time, the influence of Beijing and Moscow is harmonized.

The move can only boost Russia’s already leading role in the diplomacy and national security of the Asian continent. For both Beijing and Delhi, the road for good relations with each other and the resolution of issues such as sharing the water resources of the Himalayas and investing in the economic development of Africa now runs through Moscow. President Vladimir Putin is ideally placed to be the regular interlocutor between the two giant nations of Asia.

The move also must be seen as a most significant reaction by India to the increasing volatility and unpredictability of the United States in the global arena. In Washington and Western Europe, it is fashionable and indeed reflexively inevitable that this is entirely blamed on President Donald Trump.

But in reality this alarming trend goes back at least to the bombing of Kosovo by the United States and its NATO allies in 1998, defying the lack of sanction in international law for any such action at the time because other key members of the United Nations Security Council opposed it.

To continue reading: The World Transformed and No One in America Noticed

Will Donald Trump End The American Unipolar Moment? by Federico Pieraccini

An interesting thought: what if nobody rules the world. From Federico Pieraccini at strategic-culture.org:

We are facing an unprecedented breakthrough: a global change that potentially could definitively overwhelm the unipolar world order created after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and sent into overdrive by the 9/11 so-called War on Terror. The victory of Donald Trump is the most emblematic representation of a total repudiation by the American population of the so-called establishment and its interests.

The American elections have ended with an unexpected verdict that has confounded all forecasts. Trump won the election in the United States, home and capital of the western system, redefining the logic by which a President is normally elected. Largely for this reason, it is an extraordinarily important victory. All the apparatus of American power, such as the media, politicians, experts and intellectuals, were not enough to stop the people from expressing a vote that is more of an explicit protest.

The victory of Trump also spells the end of the Bush and Clinton dynasties, as well as the unexpected conclusion of Obama’s mandate, the betrayal of which is the biggest in US history. Elected to solve problems such as inequality, racial divisions, poverty and social injustice, he failed on all fronts, becoming one of the major causes of a dissenting vote in favor of Trump. Barack Obama has ironically been one of Donald Trump’s biggest sponsors. Obama’s voters in 2008 and 2012 were not deceived by Clinton’s promises, and after voting for Sanders as a last hope, they preferred to stay home or even vote for Trump as an ultimate expression of contempt for the status quo represented by Democrats, Republicans, and by the Washington establishment. Above all, it represented the victory and the will of the working class, tired of their economic condition worsening over more than three decades.

The victory of Brexit in England, Duterte in the Philippines, the 2013 Five Star movement in Italy, the phenomena of Le Pen in France, Syriza in Greece, and the continuously rejected European treaties — all these are part of the same theme connecting different voting issues. The continuous rejection of the idea of globalization and globalism has occupied the majority of the people. Identified as the great evil, it is considered the main cause for the continuing need for governments to subordinate national interests for international interests. This inevitably leads to a deadly embrace with an international model based on Wall Street finance, the main cause of the 2008 financial crisis, compounded by American wars around the world, a source of insecurity and prolonged terrorism.

The root of this pushback is the concept of multipolarity. In a unipolar model, power and the money is concentrated in the hands of a tiny percentage, producing an imbalance of wellbeing that is the base of common frustration of Western citizens. The success of the multipolar model derives primarily from the ability to choose without without facing unilateral imposition. Whether it is leaving the EU or the victory of a candidate not linked to the political establishment, multipolarity is the most effective way to respect the popular will, a huge difference when compared to unipolarity, where people are left with no alternative. We have been transitioning for nearly a decade into the digital domain, a world where an infinite range of options is available to achieve one’s objectives.

To continue reading: Will Donald Trump End The American Unipolar Moment?

 

It’s Our Party and You’re Not Invited, by Mark Sleboda

The world is moving away from US unipolarity, whether the US likes or acknowledges it or not. From Mark Sleboda, at theburningplatform.com:

For the week of July 6-10, the city of Ufa, Russia will have been at the center of the world, or more particularly the very center of the emerging multipolar world order.

Russia, with host and presidency duties of the annual heads of state’s summits of both BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), has taken advantage of the opportunity to hold both summits in concert.

The occasion is also being used to hold a meeting of the heads of the newly formed EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union). This is no coincidence or mere convenience – this is a definitive statement about world order and international relations.

Ufa was surely chosen by Russia for two reasons beyond simply pumping needed infrastructure money into the city. First, Ufa, as the capital of the Islamic majority Bashkortostan Republic will highlight the summits’ – and Russia’s multi-confessional – character.

Second, Ufa’s location in central Russia on the verge of the Urals – also stresses Russia’ enormous size, bridging both the West and the East.

The Western governments and press love to refer to the actions and positions of the West as “the international community”, but in Ufa we see a much more real representation of the international community.
With the confluence of these three meetings nearly every member of the Eurasian continent stretching from Belarus and Russia to China, and south to India, Pakistan, and Iran will have representatives present. Pakistan and Iran are two major forces within the Islamic World.

Brazil representing Latin America and South Africa for the African continent also provide a voice of the other major poles of the globe. What’s more the vast majority of these representatives will be heads of state. This is no minor convergence.

The five BRICS members alone represent over a quarter (26 per cent) of the earth’s land surface, nearly half of the world’s population (42 per cent), and nearly a third (27 per cent) of the world’s GDP – and growing rapidly.

To continue reading: It’s Our Party and You’re Not Invited