Obviously Russia, China, and Cuba are not happy with what happened in Venezuela. What they will do about it remains to be seen. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
Cuba might be coerced into subordinating itself to the US, the cascading consequences of other major BRI partners being intimidated into following Venezuela’s example could compel changes to China’s development strategy, and some of Venezuela’s Soviet/Russian arsenal might be sent to Ukraine.
The US’ “special military operation” in Venezuela led to President Nicolas Maduro’s capture and his replacement with Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, after which this firebrand anti-US figure softened her rhetoric and proposed collaborating on a cooperation agenda. Her policy pivot followed Trump’s threat that “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.” Several days later, Trump announced that she agreed to turn over 30-50 million barrels of oil to the US.
Politico earlier reported that “U.S. officials have told Delcy Rodriguez that they want to see at least three moves from her: cracking down on drug flows; kicking out Iranian, Cuban and other operatives of countries or networks hostile to Washington; and stopping the sale of oil to U.S. adversaries”. Trump’s announcement aligns with the third demand and accordingly suggests that the US has established a degree of proxy control over Venezuela, which could lead to the other demands eventually being met.
Apart from the abovementioned, ABC News reported that they also now include “kick[ing] out China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba and sever[ing] economic ties” with them as well as “agree[ing] to partner exclusively with the U.S. on oil production and favor[ing] America when selling heavy crude oil”. Of these four, Venezuela’s ties with Iran are the most nebulous, and the only visible manifestation of their partnership is performative anti-American signaling. Iran therefore has the least to lose if this happens.
