There are two signals that, occurring together, are virtually infallible indicators that a recession is imminent, if it has not already arrived. The first is a front page headline on a major periodical minimizing the chance of a recession, or assuring us of its impossibility. The second is a statement from the head of the Federal Reserve, minimizing the chance of a recession, or assuring us of its impossibility. When the two happen simultaneously, it’s almost a guarantee of the opposite. From chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, from a headline story in The Wall Street Journal.
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Jane Yellen said the chances of recession this are “quite low” despite mounting worries that the U.S. could be heading toward a downturn after seven years of tepid econoic expansion.
“The U.S. economy is doing well,” she said Tuesday, kicking off two days of testimony to Congress on the economic outlook and monetary policy. “My expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to grow.”
The Wall Street Journal, “Fed Chief Minimizes Chance of Recession,” 6/22/16
Truth redacted