Category Archives: Economy

Underestimating Them and Overestimating Us, by Jim Quinn

People, including SLL, have been saying a cataclysmic crisis is coming for years. It hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t make them wrong, just early. From Jim Quinn at theburningplatform.com:

“Do not underestimate the ‘power of underestimation’. They can’t stop you, if they don’t see you coming.” ― Izey Victoria Odiase

Image result for bernanke, yellen, powell

During the summer of 2008 I was writing articles a few times per week predicting an economic catastrophe and a banking crisis. When the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression swept across the world, resulting in double digit unemployment, a 50% stock market crash in a matter of months, millions of home foreclosures, and the virtual insolvency of the criminal Wall Street banks, my predictions were vindicated. I was pretty smug and sure the start of this Fourth Turning would follow the path of the last Crisis, with a Greater Depression, economic disaster and war.

In the summer of 2008, the national debt stood at $9.4 trillion, which amounted to 65% of GDP. Total credit market debt peaked at $54 trillion. Consumer debt peaked at $2.7 trillion. Mortgage debt crested at $14.8 trillion. The Federal Reserve balance sheet had been static at or below $900 billion for years.

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The World’s Least-Free Countries Reveal Just How Much “Socialism Sucks”, by David Gordon

David Gordon reviews a book with a self-explanatory title. From Gordon at mises.org:

[Socialism Sucks: Two Economists Drink Their Way Through the Unfree World. By Robert Lawson and Benjamin Powell.  Regnery Publishing, 2019. 192 pages.]

Robert Lawson and Benjamin Powell are well-known free market economists, and they do not look with favor on a disturbing trend among American young people. “In the spring of 2016,” they tell us, “a Harvard survey found that a third of eighteen-to twenty-nine year olds supported socialism. Another survey, from the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, reported that millennials supported socialism over any other economic system.” (p.8)

Unfortunately, the young people in question have little idea of the nature of socialism. Lawson and Powell would like to remedy this situation, but they confront a problem. Ordinarily, one would urge students to read Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson, Mises’s “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth,” and similar classic works, in order to understand the basic facts about the free market and socialism, but the millennials are unlikely to do so. One must attract their attention. What can be done?

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Mauldin: Social Security Is Screwing Millennials, by John Mauldin

The older generations like to rag on millennials, but spend little time thinking about the ways it’s indubitably screwing them, even though the screwees may be their own children or grandchildren. From John Mauldin at realinvestmentadvice.com:

Social Security is a textbook illustration of how government programs go off the rails.

It had a noble goal: to help elderly and disabled Americans, who can’t work, maintain a minimal, dignified living standard.

Back then, most people either died before reaching that point or didn’t live long after it. Social Security was never intended to do what we now expect, i.e., be the primary income source for most Americans during a decade or more of retirement.

Life expectancy when Social Security began was around 56. The designers made 65 the full retirement age because it was well past normal life expectancy.

No one foresaw the various medical and technological advances that let more people reach that age and a great deal more, or the giant baby boom that would occur after World War II, or the sharp drop in birth rates in the 1960s, thanks to artificial birth control.

Those factors produced a system that simply doesn’t work.

A few modest changes back then might have avoided today’s challenge. But now, we are left with a crazy system that rewards earlier generations at the expense of later ones.

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In Memoriam: Reality, by James Howard Kunstler

More and amplified weirdness is coming. From James Howard Kunstler at kunstler.com:

The Golden Golem of Greatness shifted into mad bull overdrive for last night’s Minneapolis fan rally, cussing and bellowing at the picadors of the Left who have been sticking lances in his neck for three years. Decorum is not Mr. Trump’s strong suit, but then the bull is not sent into the ring to negotiate politely for his life. The narrative of the bullring is certain death. The bull must do what he can within his nature to dispute it.

It’s in Mr. Trump’s nature to act the part of a reality TV star, and, of course, it is the nature of reality TV shows to be unreal. That is perhaps the ruling paradox of life in the USA these days. Saturated in unreality, the spectators (also called “voters”) flounder through a relentless barrage of narratives aimed at confounding them, with the unreal expectation that they can make sense of unreal things. In a place like Minneapolis of an October evening, you can go see the Joker movie or take in the President’s rally — and come away with the same sense of hyper-unreality. We’re no longer the nation we pretend to be and we don’t know it. Jokers are wild and the joke’s on us.

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Geopolitical Signals Of Global Economic Crisis Abound, by Brandon Smith

The globalists want crises, which includes an economic crisis. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.com:

As I write this, news feeds are buzzing with questions and confusion over the October US/China trade talks. In September there was a massive propaganda campaign within the mainstream media to push the notion that a deal with China was imminent, which boosted markets otherwise on the verge of a plunge due to a hailstorm of bad financial news. This media campaign also indicated to me that there would be no deal in October – best case, there will be an announcement of “progress” and a temporary pause in tariffs, which will fall apart once again in a month’s time. Worst case scenario, the talks will falter before they ever really begin. Either way, the trade war will continue well into next year.

As I predicted in my article ‘The Ugly Truth About The Trade War’ in September:

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Will the Federal Reserve Make Trump a New Herbert Hoover? Is the US Economy Primed for a 1929-Style Shock? by F. William Engdahl

The US has so much debt that even a minor economic perturbation can cause an cataclysm. From F. William Engdahl at lewrockwell.com:

In recent months US President Trump has pointed repeatedly to his role in making the American economy the “best ever.” But behind the extreme highs of the stock market and the official government unemployment data, the US economy is primed for a 1929-style shock, a financial Tsunami that is more influenced by independent Fed actions than by anything that the White House has done since January 2017. At this point the parallels between one-time Republican President Herbert Hoover who presided over the great stock crash and economic depression that was created then by the Fed policies, and Trump in 2019 are looking ominously similar. It underscores that the real power lies with those who control our money, not elected politicians.

Despite proclamations to the contrary, the true state of the US economy is getting more precarious by the day. The Fed policies of Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) implemented after the 2008 crash, contrary to claims, did little to directly rebuild the real US economy. Instead it funneled trillions to the very banks responsible for the 2007-8 real estate bubble. That “cheap money” in turn flowed to speculative high-return investment around the world. It created speculative bubbles in emerging market debt in countries like Turkey, Argentina, Brazil and even China. It created huge investment in high-risk debt, so called junk bonds, in the US corporate sector in areas like shale oil ventures or companies like Tesla. The Trump campaign promise of rebuilding America’s decaying infrastructure has gone nowhere and a divided Congress is not about to unite for the good of the nation at this point. The real indicator of the health of the real economy where real people struggle to make ends meet lies in the record levels of debt.

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The 2 Most Important Things I Learned When the SHTF in Venezuela, by J.G. Martinez D.

Some things just cannot be taken for granted. From J.G. Martinez D. at theorganicprepper.com:

Hello again fellows.

It’s has been a while since our last interaction.

Some health issues have knocked me down on my back, literally, this last week, but here I am again. Stress seems to be charging a toll on me.

Let’s go straight to the topic now. I know this is not something I usually do, you’re right.

If there is something that looks like SHTF, it is the extreme change of the situation we faced. I will elaborate a small prelude for those readers unaware of our story. I had a good life back there in Venezuela, until 3 or 4 years ago. Living in an already paid for house, in a good subdivision, a city the exact size not too big not too small..good medical care, good salary, a great job. In less than one year (a few months, indeed) all of that is gone. Couple relationship, everything. A total extension, all of a sudden, life reset. And a bugout getting through two foreign countries, now becoming increasingly violent against us migrants.

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