The polls are probably off even more than they were in 2016. From Scott McKay at spectator.org:
This week it’s all the rage among the legacy media types and even a few of the old-time conservative pundit class to screech about poll numbers and declare that President Trump’s campaign is as sick as he supposedly was with COVID-19 over the weekend.
And boy, they have the poll numbers to prove it, don’t they?
Why anybody would believe a national poll of registered, rather than likely, voters less than a month before a presidential election is beyond me.
NBC has a poll with Joe Biden up by 14 points. Not to be outdone, CNN says the margin is 16. They’re polling registered voters because they say this will be the highest-turnout election in American history and everybody’s coming out to vote.
This is why, if you know where to look, panic is starting to set in with Republicans. The public polling now is reflecting internal Republican polling from last week. Multiple campaign strategists and pollsters from states as diverse as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and even South Carolina are starting to see the bottom falling out.
Senior citizens, suburban women, and white men from up north are drifting to Biden. The President’s debate performance excited a portion of his base but alienated more. He has not grown his base nor done enough to offset it with Hispanic voters and black men.
We are less than thirty days from the election. The President is battling COVID-19 and unable to campaign. His best hope is that Mike Pence has a stellar debate performance and hits the campaign trail in lieu of the President.
This kind of talk seems to be everywhere.
But is all of this real? Here are five things to consider that might make you doubt those polls.