The Russians have achieved most of their objectives; it’s up to the West to decide how long it wants to drag out its defeat. From Daniel Davis at 19fortyfive.com:
A Paladin M109 Alpha-6 Howitzer, fires an illumination round during a night fire exercise in support of Eager Lion 2016, May 23, 2016 at Al Zarqa, Jordan. Eager Lion 16 is a bi-lateral exercise in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan between the Jordanian Armed Forces and the U.S. Military designed to strengthen relationships and interoperability beween partner nations while conducting contingency operations. (U.S Army photo by Spc. Kevin Kim/ Released)
On Sunday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said “nobody knows” how long the Russian war in Ukraine might last, but, he added, “we need to be prepared for it to last years.” Retired Army General Jack Keane told a Fox & Friends audience on Monday that Ukraine had the ability, will, and troops to win the war. All they lacked, he claimed, “is the weapons to do it.”
The historical record and a growing mountain of evidence, however, suggest that such claims are unrealistically optimistic, as there is a growing possibility that the Ukrainian Army may be months away from losing the ability to defend the country.
If the two sides do not end the war through negotiations in the coming months, it is likely – not just possible – that Ukraine will lose the war.
It is time to strip off the rose-colored glasses much of the West has worn when looking at Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and acknowledge the cold, hard truth: the Russians are on course to win. The longer we traffic in the fiction that Ukraine still has a chance, the more Ukrainian civilians will be killed, the more cities will be destroyed, and the higher the probability that Russia seizes yet more territory before a negotiated settlement can end the fighting – potentially including Kyiv. You’d never know that, however, listening to high-ranking current and former officials in the West.