Models are representations of hypotheses, or best guesses. They “prove” nothing, and to use them to guide policy is insane. From Manfred Horst at brownstone.org:
As more and more questions are being asked by more and more scientists, health professionals and journalists, the narrative of “safe and effective” Covid-19 vaccines is crumbling by the day, and scientific truth is slowly beginning to impose itself.
The simple scientific truth is that these vaccines are clinically useless, but not entirely harmless (no medical intervention is).
It is not surprising that all those who promoted them are now desperately trying to cling on to their story. How? Well, let’s publish some models, as we have done since the inception of the whole Covid propaganda and hysteria. Who needs hard clinical data?
Another modeling study, comparable in its basic assumptions, algorithms and results to the one published in The Lancet a few weeks ago, is now claiming that the Covid vaccines have saved millions of people from death and hospitalization. This time it is in the US alone that – over roughly a two-year period (December 2020 to November 2022) – 3.2 million people would have died and 18.5 million would have needed in-patient treatment, had it not been for the Covid jabs.
Given that the annual death rate in the US was around 3.4 million in both 2020 and 2021, the model pretends to demonstrate that total mortality would have risen by around 50 percent without the vaccines. Five million people would have died in both 2021 and 2022, 2 million would have been counted as “Corona-deaths” (a rise of more than 500 percent compared to the “pandemic year” 2020), and Covid-19 would thus have become the absolutely predominant cause of death in the United States of America.
STRAIGHT LINE LOGIC 