Big Gambles Heading Into Gusting Headwinds, by Alastair Crooke

The big gambles center on unproven and inherently problematic energy sources. From Alastair Crooke at

There is no assurance at all that the tech prospect will materialise. It may, but it may not. And that is a huge gamble.

The economic forces – those post war strong tailwinds – that have shaped the last 35 years, and which accelerated gilded journeys through the western ‘plentiful era’, are no longer blowing in a favourable direction. They were already slowing, but now are reversing.

The winds now have shifted 180° in direction – they are gusting headwinds. This is a structural shift within a long cycle. There are no quick ‘silver bullet’ solutions. The ‘Cabaret’ good-time years are gone. We will have to ‘make do’ with less; and consequent political volatility is inevitable.

China had earlier industrialized, giving us inflation-killing, cheap manufactures; Russia gave us the cheap energy that kept western economies (just) competitive, and (almost) inflation free. A ‘Frictionless Ease’ at that point characterised the movements of goods, capital, people – everything. Today however, it is Friction and Impediment that is prevalent.

The ‘turn’ began with the US determination to not allow an Asian ‘heartland’ to supplant it. But the shift has acquired its own powerful momentum, now generating severed trading blocs that are determined to shake free from ‘old hegemonies’.

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One response to “Big Gambles Heading Into Gusting Headwinds, by Alastair Crooke

  1. West South Africa

    The Weimar years are here and the band plays furiously on the deck but the iceberg has torn a huge hole in the hull.
    Full steam ahead says Captain Queeg.

    Liked by 1 person

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