Interest rates are going up, probably for the next thirty years or so. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:
Denial works great until it doesn’t.
The 10-year yield closed at 4.06% on Friday, the highest since early March, when it went to 4.08%, at which point the Fed’s intervention to halt the bank-panic unleashed a massive rally in all kinds of assets, including longer-term bonds, on the fervent hopes that this would be the beginning of QE all over again. It knocked the 10-year yield back down to the 3.3% range. But that rally in longer-term bonds has been replaced by a selloff, and yields have shot higher.
The last time before this rate-hike cycle that we saw a 10-year yield of 4.06% was during the Financial Crisis in 2008, when it was on the way down.
Over the three months from early August through early November last year, the 10-year yield spiked by a lightning-fast 1.6 percentage points from 2.6% to 4.2%, as bond prices plunged. This was followed by a rally in prices (yields fell again) – logical after that kind of move. And then in February, yields worked their way higher again until mid-March, when the Fed’s reaction spawned fervent hopes for QE, prices took off, and yields fell again.
