The Biden administration cares now a whit about the Ukrainian people, but that’s not what will prevent a peace agreement. Rather, a lot of self-important blowhards are going to have to eat a lot of crow, and such people don’t take to that sort of thing. Never underestimate the destructive power of ego. From Ted Snider at antiwar.com:
t’s time. If the goal is for Ukraine to emerge from this horrible situation in as strong a position as possible, then the time has come to stop the war and negotiate a settlement.
The Biden administration has long insisted that the goal is to put Ukraine in the best position “on the battlefield [to] be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Over a month in, the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was supposed to put them in that position has failed. And barring a surprise that will surprise even the US planners – because they did not plan this – Ukraine’s position on the battlefield will not improve. The US and its NATO allies can continue to deposit artillery and advanced weapons in Ukraine, but the return on their investment will just be more massive loss of equipment and Ukrainian lives.
The war seems to have reached a moment where the longer it goes on, the worse the situation gets for Ukraine in terms of loss of military equipment, loss of life and loss of land. It is time for a negotiated peace.
What could that peace look like? A diplomatic settlement must accomplish three goals. Ukraine must be guaranteed their sovereignty, their security and their potential to thrive. Russia must receive guarantees that their legitimate security concerns will be respected. And the ethnic Russians of the Donbas must be guaranteed protection.
In arriving at these three goals, ideally, three conditions must be met. The US and NATO cannot be overly rewarded for their willingness to expand NATO into Ukraine in violation of the promise they made to Russia at the dismantling of the Soviet Union. Russia cannot be overly rewarded for their invasion of Ukraine. And Ukraine cannot be overly harmed.
