how to derail a civilization, by el gato malo

Is China playing a game with the U.S. and the U.S. doesn’t even realize it’s being played? From el gato malo at boriquagato.substack.com:

one of the surest ways to lose a game is to play against an opponent who can think more moves into the future than you can and who orchestrates a deep game on timescales that are in excess of your consideration. you’ll see small moves and fail to grasp their significance. you may even think you’re gaining advantage when, in fact, your one move look ahead is about to get you into serious trouble against someone who has already mapped out the next nine.

this gets doubly dangerous when playing against someone who has a fuller or stronger concept of the game than you have. as a certain point, you’re not even in the game at all.

this gets hopelessly magnified by the fact that those who only think one move ahead or in first order effects are rarely good at conceiving of others who can do such things. they tend not to believe in it. then they lose. and call it luck. because it’s easier than realizing how badly your were outplayed.

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