Even China’s questionable statistics indicate there’s trouble in the real estate market, both commercial and residential. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:
Earlier today, Goldman’s head of hedge fund sales Tony Pasquariello observed that “to this point in the sequence, I’d argue the slowdown in China had been a net positive for US equities — with specific regard to the disinflationary impulse and the flow of capital. That said, coming out of a week that featured another disappointing set of data — and another dose of CNH weakness — it now feels like China growth fears can provoke a more global risk-off dynamic.“
Well, if Tony is right, then watch out below, because the bad news out of China has become a firehose that is only getting more powerful with every passing day, especially if one ignores the fake official data and looks at the truth beneath the surface.
Consider China’s official housing market statistics, which despite falling sequentially for the first time in 2023 in July, have first been remarkably resilient in the face of tepid economic growth and record defaults by developers. New-home prices have slipped just 2.4% from a high in August 2021, government figures show, while those for existing homes have dropped 6%.
Of course, China’s official data is almost as credible as that of the Biden Department of Labor; and indeed, the picture emerging from property agents and private data providers is far more dire.
