Exponentially escalating debt certainly qualifies as something “big and stupid.” From James Rickards at dailyreckoning.com:
With debt levels reaching all-time highs in major developed and developing economies, and with debt-to-GDP ratios also in record territory (not including contingent liabilities such as Social Security, health care and other entitlements, which make matters worse), it seems time to consider just how nations will deal with this problem.
The debt crisis may not be imminent, but it is unavoidable. When it happens, it may present the greatest financial disaster of all time. It’s never too soon for investors to consider the fallout.
When you issue debt in a currency you print, there’s no need for default in the sense of non-payment.
You can just have the central bank buy the debt (by printing money). This is the situation today in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the European Monetary Union (the countries that use the euro). They all have huge debt burdens, but they all have central banks that can simply buy the debt by printing money to avoid default.
Non-Payment Is Not the Issue
There are many bad consequences to printing money and storing up debt on central bank balance sheets, but non-payment of debt is not one of them. This is the mantra of the Modern Monetary Theorists (MMT) and their thought leader Stephanie Kelton.
In my view, MMT is garbage as economic policy, but the no-default tenet is valid. George Soros says the same thing.
