The U.S.-Iraq war earlier this century was a complete waste of hundreds of thousands lives and trillions of dollars, and it is redounding to the benefit of Iran, China, and Russia. From Simon Watkins at oilprice.com:
- Plans to increase Iraq’s oil production and then to send that extra output to China in the first instance moved up a gear in last week’s Cabinet meeting
- At the same Cabinet meeting last week, it was also agreed that Iraq should now give its full support to rolling out all aspects of the wide-ranging ‘Iraq-China Framework Agreement’.
- A key part of both deals is that China has first refusal on all oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects that come up in Iraq for the duration of the deal.
With the U.S.’s current primary Middle East focus being on trying to deter a widening of the Israel-Hamas War, China and Russia have been busy cementing their influence elsewhere in the region, most recently in Iraq. This remains a key target for Beijing and Moscow to expand their presence for three main reasons. First, it could easily become the world’s top producer of crude oil within a relatively short time if the endemic corruption in its hydrocarbons sector was curtailed. Second, its geographical positioning in the heart of the Middle East make it a vital link in building a network of logistical connections from the east of Eurasia into the west of Europe. And third, together with Iran under whose enduring influence its operates, it forms the core of the spiritual, political, military, and cultural Shia Crescent. A flurry of activity in the past couple of weeks involving Iraq, Russia, and China underline how seriously all these plans are moving forward.
