Grow up!
The lessons many of us took from playgrounds are helpful in analyzing war, although war, being humanity’s stupidest activity, is less excusable and less interesting than playground dynamics. Grownups, after all, are supposed to be wiser and more mature than kids. Realizing that most aren’t is one of those rites of passage into adulthood.
On the playground you’ll find one or more bullies, who terrorize the weaker, smaller kids. The bullies tend to form their own clique. Their victims try to stay out of their way, but bullies gotta bully. The victims quickly learn that appealing to adult authority is guaranteed trouble. While bullies may be reprimanded or otherwise punished, they have ways of dealing with upstarts and snitches, and their revenge is always disproportionate.
Once in a too great while the oppressed band together and take revenge on their oppressors, or a bully misjudges a kid as a potential victim and finds out the hard way that the kid knows how to take care of him or herself. Often in such circumstances, bullies will make their own ludicrous appeal to authority, complaining that they’re being picked on.
The foregoing pretty much describes the Israel-Palestinian war that has raged since 1948. Without engaging in the endless debate about who started it and who’s at fault for what, it is indisputable that Israel has the disproportionate power in the situation, up to and including its nuclear arsenal. It is also indisputable that it has not hesitated to use that power to enter and occupy what had formerly been Palestinian territory and to bully Palestinians into ever-shrinking enclaves. It now appears that Israel wants to bully the Palestinians out of what is now Israel altogether, so that there will be no more Palestinians in what used to be Palestine.
Palestinian responses to their plight, usually violent, have been met with disproportionate retribution; that’s official Israeli doctrine. Ten or more eyes for an eye, ten or more teeth for a tooth. It’s playing out again in Gaza. Israel appeals long and loud to its bully clique—it’s being picked on by Palestinians who represent Islamic antisemitism and who want to wipe Israel off the map. Undoubtedly many Palestinians want to do just that, just as many Israelis want to force the Palestinians to go elsewhere, but who has the power to achieve their goals?
On the playground, only the bullies can end the violence. It rarely happens, but they do have that power. Similarly, only Israel can end the conflict. Israel’s partisans sometimes argue that the Palestinians could end it by surrendering. Left unstated: that would entail Palestinians accepting their continuing subjugation to Israel, which would only guarantee more violence.
As pipe-dreamy as it sounds, to end the war, Israel would have to cede a chunk of its territory to the Palestinians for the creation of a fully independent Palestinian state. Relations between the two countries would then be governed by the rules of international relations. Neither nation could legally invade the other, and any such invasion would justify self-defensive retaliatory force by the invaded nation and its allies. Absent this solution, the 75-year war may continue for another 75 years . . . or for centuries . . . or for millennia.
Perhaps that solution isn’t as pipe-dreamy as it sounds. A continuing Straight Line Logic theme has been the ongoing dispersal and decentralization of communications, computing power, and the capacity for violence (see “Ants at the Picnic,” Parts One and Two). The Israelis could lose, as ostensibly more powerful nations have been losing to insurgent guerrillas since the end of World War II.
The photos, videos, and news accounts from Gaza and the West Bank have created a powerful upwelling of sympathy and support in the Middle East and around the world, particularly in the Global South, for the Palestinians. Their cause has even overcome the centuries-old Sunni-Shia schism. Sunni Palestinians are receiving aid from the Shia crescent extending from Iran to Yemen and northern Africa.
If Israel is unable to subjugate the Palestinians and their overt and covert allies and in fact loses, the lesson from the playground is that humiliated bullies are dealt with harshly. Their victims don’t forget what was done to them. Israel may find itself in the same position, and the victors may want to wipe it off the map. Maybe the pipe dream isn’t such a pipe dream after all.
Back to the playground. Occasionally there is a big, strong kid who doesn’t want to pick on anybody, he just wants to go his own way and be left alone—a gentle giant. And occasionally there are one or more pipsqueaks who mistake forbearance for weakness. They tease and otherwise annoy him, ignore his warnings, and count on him not to retaliate. Then one day the giant has had enough, and he puts the pipsqueaks in their place. They don’t bother him anymore.
That pretty much describes the Ukraine-Russia war. Vladimir Putin stated repeatedly that Russia would not tolerate NATO membership and NATO nuclear weapons for Ukraine. Breaking U.S. promises not to expand eastward beyond reunited Germany’s borders, made when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, NATO incorporated former Warsaw Pact nations and Baltic states and told Ukraine that it would become a member. In December 2021 the Putin government released an eight-point set of demands—including a prohibition on Ukraine’s membership in NATO—that it said should serve as the basis of negotiations. Russia warned that ignoring its demands could lead to a military response.
NATO ignored the demands, rejected negotiations, and two months later Russia invaded Ukraine. The U.S.-led alliance assumed that arming Ukraine and imposing stringent economic and diplomatic sanctions would be Russia’s undoing. The propaganda machine cranked into overdrive and Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, became the toast of Western capitals and the mainstream press. Everyone stood with Ukraine’s corrupt, Nazi-riddled government. Zelensky was Time’s 2022 Person of the Year.
NATO foolishly underestimated the bear. The sanctions didn’t work. The war strengthened both the Russia-China alliance and support for Russia among non-Western nations, many of whom ignored the sanctions. Russia has achieved its Special Military Operation’s objectives. Zelensky is a pipsqueak who’s been put in his place, and NATO’s epic mistake leaves it with nothing but unpalatable consequences and options.
Now it is up to Ukraine and NATO pipsqueaks to end the war, and they eventually will, or they will commit suicide and escalate it. The U.S. government has achieved a rare historical distinction: it stands revealed as a pipsqueak in Ukraine and a bully in Gaza. In both instances it could end the conflict, but the Biden administration has shown no inclination to do so. By telling Ukraine and Israel to knock it off, the U.S. could preserve whatever respect it still has from the rest of the world. However, the playground isn’t the only place where humiliated bullies and pipsqueaks receive harsh treatment.
Thank you, Robert, and thank you for expressing my thoughts and feelings.
As a Brit, I feel quite ashamed. But, justice evens things out in the end.
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In elementary school third grade I organized all the other children to bum rush the bully into a slide on the playground.
I took the blame and the others covered for me but that was the end of bullying.
Never be afraid of WAR it is probably older than the oldest profession by a long shot and as Aragorn said it will take in interest in you whether you like it or not.
I have read all your articles, almost 100% of which are against Israel. Watched as much history of the conflict as I could find and I admit being somewhat torn in both directions. nevertheless, after listening to Thomas Sowell’s history of the Jews I kind of agree with the 19 1947 decision. also, all of history allows the Victor the spoils. This is especially true when the Victor was attacked in 1948, 1967 and 1973. If I were a Palestinian father, I would get my family Out of there as an act of love. It seems that even if the Palestinians got their own state, they would be living without Freedom even then. Our politicians can pretend to care about us, but theirs demonstrate no visible care. Israel will win the battle, and the war will go on forever most likely. Regarding Ukraine, we broke our promises back in the 90s and we are the cause of this war. of course that one’s over and we’re just waiting to see what has been lost. I can’t wait to see what politicians gained financially there, and especially here.
Good read, good insights, good analogy. Linking asusual@https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Thank you.
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I have a question maybe you could help me to understand.
Israel set up Gaza originally and have them the ability to elect their government, but instead of voting for the Palestinian authority, they voted for Hamas as their representative; whose stated goal is the destruction of Israel.
This set the stage for today with Hamas being the enemy Israel wants eliminated.
A further point is all the graft that was poured into the Palestine cause, that never quite made it to the Palestinian people.
The atrocities going on there are truly detestable, so I’m not arguing for any side, only wat to know if the Palestinians invited this onto themselves when they joined sides with Hamas.
It’s my understanding that the Palestinian Authority was the “officially approved” representative of the Palestinian people, a puppet of the U.S. and Israel. Hamas was the untamed alternative. The Israeli’s learned to live with Hamas, believing the group was unacceptable to the world and would prevent adoption or even discussion of a two-state solution.
What the author doesn’t mention there is already a Palestinian state until it was named Jordan.
Here is a Russian bear cartoon you might find on point.
https://i.imgur.com/mnD5sjI.jpg
Yes, indeed.
Great summary and analogy. IMHO the importance of events that have taken place in Ukraine cannot be overstated. Little doubt in my mind that Western Elites thought it would be a slam dunk. If successful China would have eventually capitulated as the West picked the Russia carcass apart. The wealth stolen and the lack of any suitable opposition would have no doubt carried the dreams of total world domination by the globalists to fruition.
But it didn’t go down like that thank goodness. And now the elites are starting to panic. Their current system “unipolar monopoly” cannot be successful in a multi polar world. I believe Israel is in process of learning the same lesson. It’s only fitting as this very ugly ideology called Zionism seems to be the prevailing wisdom in the West.
Good one, Robert. As far as the pathetic Ukies and their useful idiot dual-citizen ex-dancer dictator are concerned. The end cannot come too soon. The revelations will present themselves, vis-a-vis the biolabs, sex trafficking, and the Romney/Biden/Pelosi money laundry.
As far as the Gaza situation, we all know the conflict is as old as Abraham, Issac, and Ishmael. There will be no conclusion until one side wipes the other side off the face of the earth. I just hope Nuland, the Kagans, Vindeman, the Bidens and the rest of the Swamp are at Ground Zero when the nukes begin to fly. We both know the situation will not end well. “The logical end of a war of creeds is the final destruction of one.” – H/T to T.E. Lawrence.
DWEEZIL THE WEASEL
Not to discount the issue of pending NATO membership, but there are some other aspects to consider – the Ukraine has only been a national entity since 1920 or so. Previously it was part of either the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, and Polish empires – depending on the time frame and what part of the land mass you are looking at. In the early 1930’s, Stalin doubled down on a famine and imposed food confiscation, leading to the death of some odd 3M Ukrainians and replacing them with ethnic Russians. Those ethnic Russians are more concentrated in the eastern provinces of the country. Immediately prior to the recent Russian “liberation” those same provinces were being shelled by the Ukrainian government, killing and wreaking destruction on its own citizenry to bring them to heel. The narrative about “Russian backed separatists” conveniently ignores that those are (or were) Ukrainian citizens being killed by its own government.
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We got what we get. Superior analysis, Robert, and that’s what makes your blog a laser beam on the web. It will go on and on and on. In the end, in my own opinion, Jesus Christ will step in and administer His Own Brand of Justice.
Thanks. I’m making a special announcement tomorrow.
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Israeli history started a long time before 1948. Jews from Europe started coming in and buying land from the local Arabs. They got along fine until the people who they’d bought their land from tried to take it back by force. It was like Kansas in the 1870s, houses built back then had loopholes in the stonework in the basement. One of my ancestors wrote a memoir about his experience growing up there under those conditions. Israel is just that, minus the horse stealing. In 1947, there was a UN partition of Israel into Arab and Jewish areas – the British were bankrupt and could no longer afford to police their Empire. The Arabs didn’t like the idea and started a war against the Jews – and they lost. And did the same in 1956, and 1967, and 1973 – and kept losing. In 1973, they managed to lose the Golan Heights and the entire Sinai Peninsula. After that, they pretty much gave up, because the Arab areas wound up under Israeli occupation. Your “bully” analysis doesn’t line up with the historical facts.
The fact upon which my bully analysis relies is that currently, Israel is ostensibly far bigger and stronger than the Palestinians, and it has not hesitated to throw its weight around. From the article:
Without engaging in the endless debate about who started it and who’s at fault for what, it is indisputable that Israel has the disproportionate power in the situation, up to and including its nuclear arsenal. It is also indisputable that it has not hesitated to use that power to enter and occupy what had formerly been Palestinian territory and to bully Palestinians into ever-shrinking enclaves. It now appears that Israel wants to bully the Palestinians out of what is now Israel altogether, so that there will be no more Palestinians in what used to be Palestine.
The Palestinian death toll, variously estimated at 17,000 to 20,000+, versus the Israeli death toll of 1,200 on October 7, some of whom were killed by the Israeli military, is ample demonstration of the disparity in conventional firepower.