If the U.S. Navy cannot contain the Houthi threat, what chance would it have against the Chinese in the South China Sea? From Declan Hayes at strategic-culture.su:
The Asian countries have more than enough on their plates without their former overlords from the north joining the Americans in throwing their weight about.
No sooner had this esteemed outlet published my piece on NATO convoying ships through the Red Sea but the French Navy scuttled that plan. As France has begun convoying her own ships and those of allied nations past the Houthi, the question now arises as to what the Yanks, who have a staggering 15% of their entire navy off the Yemeni coast, can do next.
At the moment, they are doing little or nothing. American-flagged cargo ships are sitting at either end of the Red Sea and are unsure whether to run the Houthi gauntlet, or to turn tail and run. As Russian ships sail blithely by, the Chinese 45th Escort Force sit in their base in Djibouti and radio their observations back to Beijing, which factors all of this into their coming conflagration in the South China Sea.
If the Americans cannot control the Houthi and if their stationary ships are at increased risk of piracy, what chance do they have against China, a peer enemy, in the South China Sea, which carries 25% of the world’s maritime shipping?
Although answers vary to that question, it is one Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, as well as Vietnam and the Philippines must give serious consideration to. Just as the French are tiptoeing away from America’s 5th Fleet, so also must those East and South East Asian powers distance themselves from Uncle Sam, whose Asian race is well and truly run. Whatever chance the Yanks have of blasting Yemen into silence, there is absolutely no chance of doing that with China, which has been building up its naval resources for decades now.
China is currently responsible for over 50% of all new ships built which, when augmented by its Fishing Militia, makes it a particularly fearsome foe, at least on paper.
Should America’s plans come to fruition, I have no doubt that South Korea and Japan, which has a track record of meticulous planning from the First Russo-Japanese War and the Pearl Harbor attack, will inflict considerable damage on Chinese ports, air strips and critical infrastructure but, conversely, that China will exact a terrible price in retribution. The smart move for those countries is to follow France’s example and to gingerly tiptoe away from Uncle Sam’s poisoned chalice.
