Is Toyota The Next Tesla? By Michael Lebowitz

Maybe Toyota has the technologies of the future. From Michael Lebowitz at realinvestmentadvice.com:

Over the last four quarters, Tesla generated total revenue and earnings of $96 billion and $15 billion, respectively. Toyota’s revenue and earnings are roughly three times larger at $299 billion and $44 billion. Yet Tesla’s market cap is more than double that of Toyota.   

Tesla shares have soared since going public, while Toyota and other major auto manufacturers’ shares have meandered along. Since going public in 2010 at $1.59 (split adjusted), Tesla shares are up nearly 12,000%. That figure is more stunning, considering it’s down 50% since late 2021. The graph below, charting the two stocks since 2018, highlights Tesla’s outperformance versus Toyota and the extreme volatility of its returns. As shown in the second graph, 40-50+% drawdowns are not uncommon for Tesla.

tesla and toyota
tesla stock price and drawdowns

Tesla shares have outperformed Toyota’s and the market because of the significant growth of EVs, a robust outlook for EV market penetration, and forecasts that Tesla will maintain its lead role in manufacturing EVs. Tesla’s market cap relies on all three coming to fruition.

What if one or more of those do not occur? Might hybrids be the preferred technology until a more efficient battery evolves? Will EV competition from established and new auto manufacturers upend Tesla’s market share? Maybe most critical, could Toyota, not Tesla, be at the forefront of a significant technological advance for automobiles?

With a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 for Toyota and 72 for Tesla, the answers to our questions have critical implications for shareholders of both stocks.

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One response to “Is Toyota The Next Tesla? By Michael Lebowitz

  1. There are a couple of them (Tesla) in Crapitol City land including donut counties.

    Interesting it is called the Tesla as Nikola already found free energy and his lab was raided by mommygov before he was even in the ground.

    I’m sure WEF Baphomet shoulder pads Elon just loves humanity and wants to save Mars. (s/)

    The Prius is more common locally probably due to cost and my virtue signal is bigger than yours.

    A Simpsons Ralph Wiggum mobile would be a sporty signal with a I’m helping save the world with my lithium battery pack pretty pink paintjob.

    It be all eco-friendly and like stuff.

    Still love the dancing black kids in Africa meme as they mine the minerals for muh virtue signal.

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