The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but, as Ring Lardner observed, that’s the way you want to bet. You certainly didn’t want to bet on the underdog in the Ukraine-Russia war. From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:
A former U.S. Colonel opines in The Hill:
Ukraine can no longer win – The Hill, Feb 22 2024
Welcome to the club, I’d say, but its nearly two years to late for that. Ukraine lost the war on February 24 2022, the day the Special Military operation had started.
There never was a chance for Ukraine to win.
I will first let the Colonel recap the established narrative to then add my observations to it:
Two years ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces defied expectations immediately. Days before Russia’s massive combined arms incursion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley spoke for the U.S. military when he predicted to Congress that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours.
Many military analysts similarly predicted the Russian Armed Forces would quickly rout the overmatched Ukrainians. American leaders encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave the country, lest Russian troops assassinate him.
These projections of immediate success for Russia misread the progress Ukraine had made in capability and readiness since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. They also overestimated the Russian forces’ readiness, air superiority, and command cohesion.
That is all – somewhat – true.
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