All-Out War in the South China Sea, by Declan Hayes

It might look like a layup that China will eventually dominate the entire South China Sea, but perhaps not. From Declan Hayes at strategic-culture.su:

The U.S. has naval and more general economic plans to contain and confront China by upending both its mercantilist and neomercantilist policies.

Although it is almost three months since I wrote that Russia must be Asia’s peace maker, it seems that ship has sailed. Whereas China’s thuggish aggression in the South China Sea continues unabated, the contrasting reactions of the Philippines and Japan combine to indicate that Armageddon is upon us. If there is a way out of this quagmire, I cannot see it.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines, her navy in particular, are tooling up at an unprecedented rate and NATO’s various arms producers see her as another mini-Klondike, with even Poland inking deals to sell the Philippines Black Hawk helicopters. Given that 12% of all Israeli arms exports now go to the Philippines and that Germany, Japan, the United States and Canada have all significantly contributed to expanding and modernising the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), it seems the Philippines has resolutely pinned its colours to NATO’s mast.

And good on them for standing up to China, whose imperious claims on the waters of the South China Sea are, together with its ongoing attacks on the PCG, a casus belli if ever there was one. Not only does the Philippines lack the wherewithal to stand up to this Chinese maritime land grab but the Chinese must know their terrorism against the peoples of the Philippines is, from any angle, unconscionable, unjust and unacceptable.

Given all that, China has no right to protest against the Philippines allowing their Yankee masters build substantial military fortifications in Batanes, which is less than 200 km from the disputed island of Taiwan. Although the Chinese will bloviate about all of this in the context of their so-called One China policy (which now extends to the waters adjoining the home islands of the Philippines and Vietnam), China should see that her own imperialist and mercantilist ambitions are as much to blame as is the United States of America, which has made detailed plans to upend the Middle Kingdom and all its imperialist pretensions.

If the PCG might seem like a sitting duck, the Japanese navy can best be viewed as a pod of killer whales which, pound for pound, is more than a match for any other country’s maritime forces, those of China included.

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