Here’s one of the best analysis I’ve seen of Russia’s overall strategy in its war with Ukraine. From Sergey Poletaev at swentr.site:
The cost to the West of supporting Kiev continues to rise, meaning Moscow’s best option is to wait
FILE PHOTO: A Russian serviceman of the Centre group of forces stands guard as a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher is fired towards Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka sector of the front line. © Sputnik / Stanislav Krasilnikov
From time to time, people ask why Russia is not acting more decisively in Ukraine, and why it appears to be dragging its feet. Some say it’s out of weakness, others suspect some secret agreements with the West, and it seems there are theories to suit all tastes.
In reality, the answer is clear and transparent. This year and the next, Russia has budgeted about 5-6% of GDP on the Ukraine conflict, and the Kremlin’s task is to use these comparatively small resources as efficiently as possible. Their intention is to achieve the goals of the military operation without a new mobilization, and to preserve not only a calm and functioning economy but also stability inside the country.
Although the front line has remained largely static since autumn 2022, the political situation and the circumstances in which the conflict will likely end are changing radically – in Russia’s favor. With little risk and at relatively small financial expense, President Vladimir Putin is slowly but surely getting his way.
Not waiting, but preparing
There is increasing talk of an imminent Russian offensive. As with the Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’ a year ago, commentators claim to know exactly where it will take place (towards Kharkov or Sumy), when it will happen (in May or June), and are sure in advance that it will be decisive for the whole conflict, and so on.
