Last Weekend, Iran Changed Everything, by Ted Snider

The Iranian attack on Israel may well be a watershed moment for U.S. foreign policy. From Ted Snider at libertarianinstitute.org:

On April 13, Iran responded to Israel’s attack on its embassy compound in Damascus that killed seven Iranian officers, including a very senior military official, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, by launching over 300 drones and missiles at Israel from Iranian soil. U.S. officials, according to some reporting, say that four or five ballistic missiles hit the Nevatim air force base, while, according to other reporting, four other ballistic missiles hit a second air base. All reporting agrees that the bases were “lightly hit” and that there was “no significant damage.” Though the damage caused by the attack was not significant, the changes it caused may be. Four changes in particular might be especially important.

Deterrence: Changing Future Calculations

Iran’s chosen response to the fatal strike on its embassy seems not to have been about retaliation nor escalation. If it had been, they would have fired more missiles than drones, and they would not have announced the drones as soon as they were launched nor declared the operation “concluded” before they arrived. They would not have shared in advance the details and timing of the operation with Saudi Arabia, other Gulf countries, and Turkey, a member of NATO, who then, predictably, shared it with the United States.

The chosen response was about re-establishing deterrence. Prior to April 13, Iran had absorbed the assassination of scientists and soldiers and the sabotage of its civilian nuclear infrastructure. The massive demonstration of the ability to launch a sufficient number of missiles to get some through and strike targets in Israel has changed that. From now on, decisions about striking Iranian interests will have to factor the possibility of an even larger and more impactful response into the calculation.

Continue reading