Karl Deninger sees signs that recession is on its way. From Deninger at market-ticker.org:
…. the gathering gloom.
Plenty of people — including obviously the stock market and its commentators — believe everything will be ok.
Deficits don’t matter.
The government cannot go broke.
There will never be a loss of confidence.
I travel quite a bit. Like most people I have my habits — places I like, things I go to do and if I enjoy them I’ll go back and do them again. This means I see patterns and, unlike many, I tend to notice them immediately. Perhaps its a blessing — or perhaps a curse.
I just got back after one such trip; one I’ve made before and Sarah and her boyfriend both came as well (her boyfriend has not been on this trip before, but she certainly has.) They traveled separately but we met up and had a good time.
If you’re in the market you ought to be making up a big fat list of things to be short — or at least be out of the things you’ve had and are long of, particularly when you can get a 5%+ risk free return in the short end (the 13 week bill, for example) of the Treasury market. I was stunned at the deterioration I saw in consumer behavior from just a month or so ago on my prior trip, and gob-smacked at the change over three months or so back when Sarah and I were out at Wolf Creek, also a place I like to go on a repetitive basis (for skiing, of course.)
Why not put up a too big to fail sign? (/s)
Problem solved and hashtags bring the girls back home.
Reality is undefeated and never going to lose no matter how bad it seems.
Recession is best case scenario as the faculty lounge whether by design or incompetence will bring about a 1929 style wipeout.