People have kids when they’re happy and optimistic about the future. From Michael Snyder at endoftheamericandream.com:
Fertility rates have fallen way below replacement level throughout the entire industrialized world, and this is starting to cause major problems all over the globe. Aging populations are counting on younger generations to take care of them as they get older, but younger generations are not nearly large enough to accomplish that task. Meanwhile, there aren’t enough qualified young workers in many fields to replace the expertise of older workers that are now retiring. Sadly, this is just the beginning. As I discuss in my new book entitled “Chaos”, if fertility rates continue to drop we could potentially be facing an unprecedented global population collapse in the decades ahead. This has become so evident that even the mainstream media is starting to do stories about this. In fact, an economist that was just interviewed by the Wall Street Journal is warning that “demographic winter is coming”…
Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.
In high-income nations, fertility fell below replacement in the 1970s, and took a leg down during the pandemic. It’s dropping in developing countries, too. India surpassed China as the most populous country last year, yet its fertility is now below replacement.
“The demographic winter is coming,” said Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, an economist specializing in demographics at the University of Pennsylvania.
Here in the United States, if we want to maintain a stable population we need the fertility rate to be at 2.1 or above.
