Analyzing The Estonian Premier’s Remark About The Applicability Of Article 5 In Ukraine, by Andrew Korybko

The Estonian premier is trying to weasel-word NATO’s Article 5, which obligates all members to fight if one is attacked. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.com:

Kaja Kallas’ assurances that Article 5 wouldn’t automatically be invoked if Russia killed uniformed NATO trainers in Ukraine shouldn’t be taken at face value since tensions could easily spiral out of control in that scenario.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told the Financial Times that Article 5 wouldn’t automatically be invoked if NATO troops are killed in Ukraine. In her words, “I can’t possibly imagine that if somebody is hurt there, then those who have sent their people will say ‘it’s article five. Let’s…bomb Russia.’ It is not how it works. It’s not automatic. So these fears are not well-founded. If you send your people to help Ukrainians…you know the country is in war and you go to a risk zone. So you take the risk.”

She also admitted that “there are countries who are training soldiers on the ground already” so her words aren’t merely theoretical. This disclosure follows Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk admitting earlier in the month that “there are some troops there, I mean soldiers. There are some soldiers there. Observers, engineers. They’re helping them out.” Even though many believe that the US is also involved in these missions, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. denies it.

He told the New York Times that “We’ll get there eventually, over time”, with respect to authorizing the deployment of American boots on the ground for alleged training purposes despite his concern that this would “put a bunch of NATO trainers at risk” and require air defenses to protect them. On that topic, although it was earlier assessed that “It Would Be Surprising If Polish Patriot Systems Were Used To Protect Western Ukraine” due to Anglo-American objections at the time, calculations might be changing.

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