The Forest and the Trees: Ukraine’s Strategic Dissipation, by Big Serge

Zelensky’s Victory Plan is a fantasy and Ukraine has no hope of achieving its original war aims. From Big Serge at bigserge.substack.com:

In virtually all eras of human history, protracted high intensity wars have been the most intricate and overwhelming challenges that a state can face. Warfare presents a multi-faceted strain on state powers of coordination and mobilization, requiring a synchronized, full-spectrum mobilization of national resources. It is no coincidence that periods of intense warfare have frequently spurred the rapid evolution of state structures and powers, with the state forced to spawn new methods of control over industry, populations, and finance in order to sustain its war-making. Even in a country like the United States, which likes to think of itself as relatively untouched by war, the eras of rapid state expansion and metastatic administrative growth have correlated with the country’s great wars: the federal bureaucracy grew in massive spurts during the Civil War and the World Wars, and the state security apparatus exploded to accommodate the Global War on Terror. War is destructive, but it is also an inducement to rapid technological change and state expansion.

The myriad decisions and tasks facing a state at war can easily boggle the mind, and they span the technical, tactical, operational, industrial, and financial realms. Choosing where this or that infantry battalion ought to be deployed, how much money to invest in this or that weapons system, how to acquire and allocate scarce resources like energy and fuel – all decisions made in a vast concatenation of uncertainty and chance. The scope of this coordination problem is astonishing, and readily becomes apparent in the context of hundreds of thousands, or even millions of men fighting on thousands of kilometers of front, disposing of incomprehensible quantities of ammunition and food and fuel.

The sheer scope of this coordination game brings the inherent threat of decision making paralysis and distraction, with a vast array of operational minutia and competing political concerns causing the focus of the army and state to dissipate. The war begins to absorb its own energies and become unmoored from strategic direction. The prototypical example of this, of course, is Nazi Germany, which by 1943 continued to wage war with extreme energy and intensity, but without a unified strategic animus or theory of victory. German effort and capacity never seriously slackened; the German army continued to fight and hold positions, German commanders continued to deliberate and argue about holding this salient and that river line, German industry continued to produce ammunition and advanced weaponry, and the German logistical apparatus continued to shuttle vast quantities of coal and fuel and supplies and human biomass back and forth across the continent. This enormous energy and intensity, however, was unmoored from a theory of victory, and Germany’s war became detached from any political or strategic sense about how the conflict could be ended in anything other than the destruction of the German homeland.

Continue reading

One response to “The Forest and the Trees: Ukraine’s Strategic Dissipation, by Big Serge”

  1. The aims are WWIII, Heavenly Jerusalem for the Oligarchs, build it back CCCP with Blackrock, no UKE male left standing and nuclear exchanges.

    RF has introduced ground drones with grenade lobbing and MG mounts.

    Mech WAR could eliminate humans from the picture in the silver lining.

    Fam is watching young Trump and the disaster that was NYC in the 1970s!

    Now showing Fred Trump housing and he would have lunch every day at local restaurant unlike those who work for CPUSA/CCP.

    LMFAO! Now showing hot GILF who claims DJT was atractive when they met in 1974.

Leave a Reply