While Syria was certainly caught off guard by the HTS advance on Aleppo, it has a lot of friends who have powerful incentives to prevent Syria’s present government from falling. From Kamal Alam at middleeasteye.net:
Facing a surprise attack on Aleppo by opposition groups, Damascus is in a position of strength after years of rebuilding regional ties
Amid the swift and stunning collapse of Aleppo following an assault led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is internationally sanctioned as a terrorist group, it is important to pause and recall that we have been here before.
The advance by HTS and Turkish-backed rebels in Syria suggests that Turkey is playing its cards before US president-elect Donald Trump takes office, driven by its existential fear of a Kurdish enclave in northern Syria.
Turkey had been frustrated with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s repeated refusal to come to the negotiating table and meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, although both Syrian and Turkish defence and intelligence chiefs have met regularly in Russia.
Al-Assad has been negotiating through his ministers while relying on the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia for the diplomatic push.
Yet, while the finger of blame has been pointed at Turkey, the Israel factor cannot be discounted.
