It looks the Kursk offensive has already backfired on Ukraine. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:
The true purpose of Ukraine’s surprise offensive into the Russian agricultural region of Kursk has been hotly debated since it was launched in August. The complete failure of the 2023 “counter-offensive” led many to believe that Ukraine’s rumored troop shortages were far worse than initially reported. Some believed that the Kursk offensive was designed to allay fears among allies that Kyiv was no longer capable of taking ground from the Russians.
The invasion of Kursk was successful primarily because the area was weakly defended, and it was weakly defended because it has no strategic value. It’s a collection of farming towns with no industrial infrastructure, and the nearest vital site (a nuclear power plant) is too far away for the Ukrainians to reach. Almost every tactician not working for Ukraine has questioned the offensive, calling it potentially one of the greatest military blunders in modern history.
Why? Because Kursk has siphoned up some of Ukraine’s best troops and weaponry and increased the ground they have to defend with the limited forces they have available. In a war of attrition, the losing side must seek to shrink and strengthen their area of defense instead of spreading themselves thin. Ukraine did the opposite.
