Chinese bureaucrats and politicians are no smarter than bureaucrats and politicians anywhere else. From Mike “Mish” Shedlock at mishtalk.com:
Other than exports, no country wants to be like China.
China Overindebtedness, Overbuilding and Overcapacity
The Wall Street Journal reports China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is.
Destiny deferred
China’s rapid growth meant that for years forecasters expected China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. As recently as 2019, some forecasters were expecting China’s GDP to eclipse the U.S.’s around 2030. Today, it is the U.S. powering the global economy and China that is battling stumbling growth. Few now expect China to catch up with the U.S. before midcentury, if it manages to at all.
Ticking time bomb
China is also facing demographic headwinds that will make it harder to restore its economic vigor. China’s working-age population is shrinking, reversing the demographic dividend that powered its economic ascent.
China’s Working-Age Population
China’s economy has for decades been powered by heady levels of investment. At first, that yielded modern infrastructure and propelled the expansion of China’s manufacturing engine and its megacities. But sticking with that strategy year after year has meant China today is beset by colossal debts, unneeded apartments and industrial overcapacity.
