Its inflate or die for the Fed, which should propel the price of gold. From Matthew Piepenburg at vongreyerz.gold:
Another year is ending, which means it’s time to look back in order to better look forward.
For 2025, I see no other realistic option or scenario ahead other than a weaker dollar and rising gold.
This is not “selling my book,” it’s just a common-sense approach to the realities of history, debt markets and the signals of my often-repeated mantra that can’t be repeated enough, namely: “The bond market is the thing.”
Below, we see why.
To some, of course, the bond market is boring, but let’s keep it simple, because if you understand government debt, you see things with an almost eerie clarity.
So, let’s start with a brief, debt-based look back.
Looking Back
In my year-end report for 2023, we saw the coming events of 2024 fairly clearly. This was not the result of genius or tarot cards, but just a blunt understanding of debt.
Predictable Rate Cuts
I said Powell would cut rates in 2024. He did precisely that. How did I know? Did Powell tell me so?
No, the bond market did.
Predictably Failed War on Inflation
Powell cut rates in 2024 because Uncle Sam (then at $34T in debt) would not and could not afford his failed yet admittedly dis-inflationary “higher for longer” rate policy to “beat” inflation—which I said he would never beat, and he never did.
Period.
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