Syria is a crucial piece of real estate in the Middle East. It’s ultimate fate is up in the air, but the U.S. will probably end up with its oil. From Simon Watkins at oilprice.com:
- The removal of Bashar al-Assad has reignited Western and Eastern plans to control Syria’s oil and gas resources.
- Syria’s strategic position plays a pivotal role in Russian and Chinese plans, including Russia’s “Shia Crescent” strategy and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
- The U.S., Turkey, and other players are positioning themselves to rebuild Syria’s energy infrastructure.
Following the surprise removal on 8 December of President Bashar al-Assad after 53 years of his family’s rule in Syria, long-dormant plans in the U.S. are being dusted off about what will happen next there and who will control it. The plans were drawn up in anticipation that Bashar al-Assad would fall soon after July 2011, a senior energy security source who worked closely with the administration of then-U.S. President Barack Obama exclusively told OilPrice.com. “At that point [when defectors from the Syrian army formed the Free Syrian Army and began an armed conflict across the country], Washington was certain that he [al-Assad] would fall in a matter of weeks, so they expedited the existing planning for that contingency, as did Russia and Iran, and the European Union too,” he said. “The plans for each included options to support its [Syria’s] production of oil and gas as this was a key source of its revenues,” he said. “These were to run in parallel with, and support, whichever group finally came out on top after he [al-Assad] was removed from the picture,” he added.
