The consensus has shifted to acknowledging that Ukraine is losing its war with Russia. The consensus has not shifted to anything but that we must keep aiding Ukraine in this fiasco. From Simplicius at simplicius76.substack.com:
And we discuss the outlook on a future beyond Ukraine’s coming defeat.
The tone around Ukraine continues to shift. It was imperceptible at first, but has since reached a point where utterance of previously unspeakable things is a commonplace cry of alarm. For a long time, yellow press flacks tried desperately to couch Ukraine’s collapse as merely the need for a breather, or deceptively spinning it on Russia or Putin’s desire for peace talks, owing to high losses and a putative inability to achieve goals.
But now, everywhere you look, for the first time the omerta has been lifted: outlets are openly—albeit still in hushed tones—admitting that Ukraine not only faces some vague ‘defeat’, but total capitulation to Russia. Even before, when at times such an outcome was hinted at, the full ramifications of the word were left intentionally open-ended, as if in hopes the reader would not yet assume the worst, but perhaps imagine Ukraine’s “collapse” was merely some localized event. What’s changed now is they are openly defining it: this is the second major report in days which quite directly says: If things continue as they are, Russian tanks will roll through both Kiev and Lvov, full stop.
I bring you, the Hill’s latest:
