Some gold futures traders are opting to take delivery instead of closing out their positions. This is causing a panic in the markets, because physical gold in any kind of quantity is proving hard to find. This could turn into a very big problem, indeed. From Alasdair Macleod at alasdairmacleod.substack.com:
An article on Comex delivery delays has been posted on GATA, suggesting the real reason behind the current panic might not be tariffs, but large amounts of bullion undelivered.
Before reading this article, it is worth reading a link posted on GATA to an article by Kevin Bambrough, who worked for Sprott between 2002—2013. It is a saga of major bullion houses using every excuse under the sun to justify non-delivery of bullion to Sprott. 5-day deliveries were not completed and turned into “a nine-month odyssey of excuses and misdirection”.
I remember reading of a similar case several years ago, when an individual reported that by way of an experiment, he bought one futures contract and stood for delivery. Every excuse not to deliver was made and finally occurred after the individual showed persistence and tenacity, long after delivery was due. It was this experience that comes to mind as confirmation that Bambrough’s story has the ring of truth in it, and appears to confirm that bullion banks, who are dealers in credit and not bullion, don’t really have the bullion to deliver on contract expiry.
I have been collecting stand-for-delivery statistics since 2021, and annual totals are shown in the table below.
This year so far to 3 February, an additional 191.4 tonnes of gold and 495.6 tonnes of silver have been stood for delivery, indicating that while the rate of silver deliveries has broadly been maintained, for gold it has accelerated sharply: annualised, the current pace for 2025 is over 2,200 tonnes.
Remember, that it was never intended that Comex would act as a source of bullion deliveries. The facility existed simply to tie the time-value of a contract to spot, which could only happen if the delivery facility existed. All participants in this market assumed that contract closure would be by closing an open position — not standing for delivery. Everyone from bullion banks downwards to hedge funds and individuals sees futures as offering a leveraged play on bullion prices, and certainly not being required to stump up the funds to take delivery, or to possess the bullion to deliver.
Pingback: Have gold and silver actually been delivered? By Alasdair Macleod | STRAIGHT LINE LOGIC – Additional survival tricks