Attacking Iran will exponentially increase the magnitude of the problems Trump currently has with Iran. From Daniel Larison at daniellarison.substack.com:
The president’s mindless obsession with Iran makes Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons more likely.
The president imagines that military action can “solve” the nuclear issue with Iran:
We are down to final strokes with Iran. We are down to the final moments. We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon. Something is going to happen very soon. I would rather have a peace deal than the other option but the other option will solve the problem [bold mine-DL].
If Trump has been told that military action will “solve” the problem, his advisers have been lying to him. Attacking Iran will at most set back Iran’s nuclear program, and it will then give their government every incentive to escalate and move towards becoming a nuclear weapons state. Military action is not going to be able to eliminate the existing program.
An attack is much more likely to push Iran to build a nuclear deterrent in order to prevent future attacks. Far from solving the current problem, it will create a much worse one. The president’s mindless obsession with Iran makes Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons more likely.
