Keep in mind Iran’s good friends Russia and China. From Martin Jay at strategic-culture.org:
The real worry now for Iran, China and the rest of the world is that Trump’s second term in office is more isolationist.
June 2019 was a critical moment in Donald Trump’s first term as president where, he was told that Iran had shot down a U.S. drone in international waters in the Persian Gulf. It is reported that he instructed the Pentagon to carry out a number of strikes against Iranian military installations but then was told by a general that if he did that, this would invoke a world war and that many U.S. soldiers would die as a consequence. He backed down, after weighing up the consequences and probably considered that the Iranian downing of the U.S. drone was probably within Iran’s airspace after all.
For those who know Trump, this was quite a salient moment. Many would argue that Biden would not have backed down and that a war with Iran – and Iran alone in those days – would have been a huge defeat for the U.S. in that it would not win, thus only suffering from defeats on the battlefield would make it a loser. Was it not Kissinger who said that “The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” The quote, of course, is perhaps poorly aligned with the reality of a war between the U.S. and Iran, as the latter can hardly be described as a guerrilla organization, but the point is that America cannot win against Iran simply because of the ratio of body bags and collateral losses of material. Iran can lose 1,000 soldiers verses America’s one, in terms of the negative impact on Trump’s decision to go ahead with the war in the first place. For the U.S. to fight Iran, even with partners, it would need to have only one plan, which would be the entire inhalation of the country and its regime. Given that the U.S. cannot even defeat the Houthis, it’s hard to see how even the most hard-core sycophant in the Pentagon that Trump has, indulging themselves to this level of fantasy.
Has Donald Trump reinvented his own political doctrine in his second term? Given that we are always led to believe that he doesn’t like the distraction of foreign wars, it’s hard to take him seriously with the threats he has made to Iran in recent days. In 2019 Iran’s ballistic missile defence system was considered too sophisticated and impenetrable for a U.S. attack. Six years later it is even greater than it was and Tehran now has both China and Russia as security partners. Add to that, Iran is believed to have purchased Russia’s S-400 air defence system, in exchange for it supplying Russia with ballistic missiles, which presents the possibility of an air strike by either America’s B-52 bombers or even fighter jets as a mission impossible – as they won’t be able to enter Iranian airspace as was the case in October 2024 when Israeli fighter jets attempted a massive attack but failed on a grand scale.
