If the U.S. goes to war with Iran, Trump would be lucky to come away from it with a treaty that looks a lot like the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal)―from which he pulled the U.S. in his first term. From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:
There are a number of discussions about a potentially imminent U.S. war on Iran. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism concludes that a war is more likely than not. Crooke, Mercouris and Diesen are ambivalent (vid) but also seem to expect a conflict.
President Trump (or, more correct, Netanyahoo behind him) has made demands towards Iran that are designed to be rejected:
- End all nuclear programs
- Destroy medium range missiles which can reach Israel
- Stop support for all ‘resistance’ movements in the Middle East
Iran will of course reject those demands.
It is willing to put its nuclear program back into the parameters of the JCPOA nuclear agreement, which Trump previously discarded, IF sanctions against it are lifted. It is also willing to do lucrative business with the U.S. But that is about it.
The U.S. is trying to impress Iran with military arrangements. Several B-2 bombers were sent to Diego-Garcia, two airforce carriers are in the Middle East, Israel has been supplied with more THAAD and Patriot air defense missiles.
I find that to be a mere show of force mostly for the audience in the U.S. It is not enough for a sufficiently strong attack that aims to defeat Iran. Iran’s abilities to retaliate require a much larger force for the opening campaign and many more forces to handle all the calamities which would inevitably follow.
