The numbers behind China’s emergence as an industrial superpower are astounding. From Wessie du Toit from unherd.com:
In 2004, an unusual crime wave swept cities around the world. Some called it the great drain robbery. Under cover of darkness, thieves were stripping manholes of their heavy iron covers, leaving streets perforated with sudden drops into sewage tunnels. In a single week, the London borough of Newham lost 93 covers. Aberdeen, in Scotland, saw 130 vanish. Chicago was robbed of 150 in a month. In the Indian city of Kolkata, more than 10,000 manhole covers were reportedly stolen over the course of two months.
These thefts were motivated by a phenomenon that commodity traders call a supercycle, meaning an extended period of high prices for raw materials. Since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen five supercycles, coinciding with major bursts of economic development or war. Those manhole covers had become valuable because the price of iron, an ingredient for the production of steel, was surging. And most of the demand was coming from one country in particular. China was beginning its rise as an industrial giant.
Iron ore was the signal substance of Chinese growth — by 2024, its price was almost 1,000% higher than in 1995 — but all kinds of resources were sucked into the whirlwind: oil and coal, nickel and copper, soybeans and rubber and wool. In recent months, though, analysts have been announcing the end of the two-decade China supercycle. Chinese iron ore consumption is starting to come down, along with steel production. Some reckon its demand for oil may be peaking too. This does not mean that China will stop growing, but the economic patterns are shifting.
As Donald Trump’s tariff experiment now lurches into an escalating trade war with China, it is worth considering the epochal shift that brought us here. The supercycle was an epic chapter carved into the material substrate of our world, reverberating in every corner of the globe. It has raised China, in the space of a generation, from a poor and largely rural society to a superpower that is competing at the frontiers of technology, while controlling the most important resources for the future. It has transformed the developing world. It is implicated with the rise of Trump and, in various ways, with European weakness.
