Russia’s immediate goals for a settlement of the Ukraine-Russia war are unchanged, but there is the possibility of larger agreements, particularly for arms control. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
If a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine and no Western troops are deployed there, then it’s expected that strategic arms control talks with the US might resume shortly thereafter.
Former Russian Defense Minister and incumbent Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu gave a very detailed interview to TASS about their country’s security interests. It’s a lengthy read though so some might not have the time to go through it in full. That’s why the present piece will only draw attention to the top five takeaways pertaining to the chances of a ceasefire, the scenario of Western peacekeepers in Ukraine, NATO threats, strategic security, and Russia’s Eurasian security initiative:
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1. Russia Is Ready For A Ceasefire Under Certain Conditions
Shoigu confirmed that “A ceasefire is possible if it is the beginning of a long-term peace, and not an attempt to organize another respite and regrouping of Ukrainian armed formations…we are ready for a ceasefire, a truce, and peace talks, but only if our interests and realities ‘on the ground’ are fully taken into account.” The problem is that the EU continue to support Ukraine, including its numerous violations of the “energy ceasefire” and erstwhile Easter truce, which complicate the prospects for a ceasefire.
2. Western Troops In Ukraine Could Lead To World War III
Shoigu also reminded his interlocutor how Russia has always opposed NATO countries’ military presence “on our historical territory” even before the special operation and is waging it in part to remove such influence. That’s why he warned that Western countries’ efforts to deploy troops to Ukraine under the guise of peacekeepers, but for the actual purpose of controlling its resources and keeping its extremist anti-Russian government in power, could lead to World War III and should thus not be attempted.
