Here are the twe details that count: the US, Ukraine, and Europe can capitulate, or the Russians keep advancing. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.com:
The US’ policy towards the conflict will likely depend on the course of these upcoming negotiations.
Trump appeared to have recognized the limits of third-party mediation between Russia and Ukraine in the post that he made after his latest call with Putin on Monday. He announced the “immediate” start of ceasefire negotiations between them but specified that “The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.” Here are ten background briefings that place his latest position into context:
* 12 March: “Will Putin Agree To A Ceasefire?”
* 1 April: “Trump’s Latest Sanctions Threat Against Russia Suggests That He’s Getting Impatient For A Deal”
* 4 April: “Putin’s Economic Envoy Helped Break The Russian-US Impasse On Ukraine”
* 10 April: “How Might The US’ Relations With Ukraine & Russia Change If It Abandons Its Peace Efforts?”
* 28 April: “Five Significant Disagreements Account For Trump’s Newfound Anger With Putin”
* 2 May: “The Amended Minerals Deal Will Likely Lead To More American Weapons Packages For Ukraine”
* 3 May: “Five Benefits That The US Would Reap From Coercing Ukraine Into More Concessions To Russia”
* 10 May: “The US Is Toughening Its Negotiating Stance Towards Russia”
* 13 May: “Third-Party Mediation Between Russia & Ukraine Is Approaching Its Limits”
* 17 May: “The Ball’s In Trump’s Court After The Latest Istanbul Talks”
To review, the US has hitherto wanted Russia to accept freezing the Line of Contact (LOC) in exchange for a series of profitable (likely resource-centric) deals, absent which another round of American sanctions could be implemented and perhaps even the large-scale resumption of military aid to Ukraine. Sanctions are still on the table, but Trump’s latest post was much more politely written than some previous ones that expressed increasing impatience with Putin, thus suggesting that some progress has been made.
