Recent fireworks won’t change the outcome of the war. From Sergey Poletaev at swentr.site:
With dwindling weapons, collapsing morale, and no strategic gains, Ukraine turns to spectacle as a last resor
Russian servicemen of the Tsentr (Centre) group of forces prepare to launch a Molniya-2 strike-reconnaissance drone from a position in the Krasnoarmeysk sector of the frontline amid Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. © Sputnik / Sputnik
On Monday, a fresh round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine kicks off in Istanbul. Both sides are expected to present ceasefire terms, though few anticipate surprises. Russia is bringing a detailed proposal rooted in its long-standing demands – essentially a “Istanbul-22 plus territory” formula. That means Ukraine must abandon its military ties with the West, reject what Moscow calls an “anti-Russian ideology,” and recognize the current frontlines as de facto borders.
Skeptics will argue: as long as the war grinds on, talks are meaningless. But this is the first time in three years that Russia’s position is being codified on paper – a shift that makes it harder to dismiss. Putin has been repeating these demands for years, mostly to little effect. Now, even an unsigned document gives the Kremlin a firmer diplomatic foothold.
Ukraine, for its part, is arriving with a proposal of its own. According to Reuters, it closely mirrors the draft Kiev took to London in April – a proposal that met firm resistance from Washington and ultimately derailed that summit. Central to Ukraine’s demands is a call for binding international security guarantees. In plain terms, Kiev is asking the West to commit to defending Ukraine – not just in theory, but militarily. It’s a request Western capitals have been reluctant to honor since 2022, when then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson walked away from the table. That hesitation is unlikely to change now.
Drones, disruption, and the battle for leverage
Perhaps aware of the limited traction its peace terms are likely to get, Ukraine appears to be trying to bolster its negotiating posture through force. On Sunday, just a day before the talks, drones struck five long-range Russian airbases across Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions. Russia’s Defense Ministry says three attacks were fully repelled, while two partially succeeded.
Seven rump vassals are against the entry of Ukraine into NATO.
One time that let’s all have consensus and vote on it has worked.
On the flipside UN voted against Russia’s humanitarian aid for Ukraine.