Even if the neocons have to give up on the Ukraine-Russia war, they’re not going to give up on regime-changing and balkanizing Russia. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
Their refined Hybrid War model will involve efforts to win the “tech race”, a new Western division of labor for containing Russia in Europe, and AI-generated anti-Russian infowars.
Russia’s natural resource wealth and new role in accelerating multipolar processes incentivize the West to continue its Hybrid War on Russia even in the event of peace in Ukraine. The US’ neoconservative policymaking faction and the EU’s liberal-globalists (essentially one and the same at this point) continue to perceive Russia as an enduring rival to contain and ideally dismember. That’s why they’re expected to refine their ongoing Hybrid War on Russia in the coming future through the following three means.
The first involves their efforts to win the “tech race”, specifically in terms of AI and the Internet of Things, which they envisage will enable them to lead the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (4IR). The consequent economic and military edge that they anticipate is supposed to “leave Russia in the dust” as they see it. They believe that economic and then political instability will eventually follow in Russia. This could take the form of Color Revolutions, renewed terrorist insurgencies, and/or uncontrollable elite infighting.
The second aspect concerns the West’s division of labor in containing Russia. The US will “Lead From Behind” by providing back-end support for its European junior partners as it prioritizes containing China. Meanwhile, the UK wants a sphere of influence in the Arctic-Baltic, Germany just in the Baltic, Poland in Central & Eastern Europe, and France in Romania-Moldova. The EU’s associated €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”, which will likely lead to social spending cuts, is being spun as a ‘defense of democracy’.
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