Trump’s tactics could backfire enormously. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
His threatened secondary sanctions could majorly backfire by harming the US’ own interests.
The “major statement” on Russia that Trump earlier hyped up turned out to be a clumsy attempt to thread the needle between radically escalating US involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict and walking away from it. His new three-pronged approach includes: 1) the rapid dispatch of up to 17 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine; 2) more arms sales to NATO countries who’ll in turn transfer them to Ukraine; and 3) up to 100% secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners if a peace deal isn’t reached in 50 days.
In the order that they were mentioned, each corresponding move is aimed at: 1) bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses in order to decelerate the pace of Russia’s continual on-the-ground gains; 2) helping Ukraine reconquer some of its lost land; and 3) coercing China and India into pressuring Russia into a ceasefire. The first two goals are self-explanatory, with the second being unrealistic given the failure of Ukraine’s much more heavily armed counteroffensive in summer 2023, while the third requires some elaboration.
China and India’s large-scale imports of discounted Russian oil have served as crucial valves from Western sanctions pressure by helping to stabilize the ruble and thus Russia’s economy in general. Even though these imports also help their own economies, Trump is wagering that they’ll at the very least curtail them in order to avoid his threatened 100% secondary sanctions. He might make an exception for the Europeans and Turks, who also purchase Russian resources, on the pretext of them arming Ukraine.
