Brazil is the key to Trump’s desire for hemispheric dominance. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
His goal is to subordinate Brazil as a vassal state so that it becomes the main “Fortress America” component of his “Global West” vision.
Brazil has come under tremendous pressure from Trump in recent weeks over former President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial, bilateral trade, and BRICS. This has correspondingly taken the form of him: publishing a letter of support for Bolsonaro demanding an “immediate end” of the case against him on charges of organizing a failed coup; threatening 50% tariffs on Brazil next month despite enjoying a trade surplus with it; and possibly tacking on another 10% solely on the basis of its membership in BRICS.
The economic dimension of this newfound pressure campaign might even escalate to an additional 100% tariff if Brazil continues trading with Russia after Trump’s 50-day deadline for a peace deal in Ukraine. As CBS News reported in mid-July, “Brazil is the biggest purchaser of Russian fertilizer products, crucial to supporting its soybean, sugar and coffee exports”, so it can’t realistically cut off trade with Russia. All the tariffs will be at Trump’s discretion, however, so he could lower or even waive them if a deal is reached.
Trump doesn’t just want the charges against his friend Bolsonaro dropped, guarantees put into place for further facilitating trade with the US and preventing the transshipment of more highly tariffed countries’ goods into its market, and for co-founder Brazil to distance itself from BRICS. His goal is to subordinate Brazil as a vassal state, regardless of whoever ends up leading it after the next presidential election in fall 2026, so that it becomes the main “Fortress America” component of his “Global West” vision.
Russia is building munitions plants in Venezuela.
Milei has visited the Western Wall and intends to convert.
There is your rump vassal and control freaks end up controlling nothing.