It’s not clear how Trump thinks he’s going to get a deal out of Putin when Russia is winning the war and has withstood every sanction the West has thrown at it. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
Polar opposite understandings of the Sino-Indo prisoner’s dilemma lie at the core of their calculations.
Trump announced on Monday that he was shortening his 50-day deadline to Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine to “about 10 or 12 days from today”, thus meaning that he plans to impose up to 100% tariffs on all its trading partners by 7-9 August, but likely with exceptions such as the EU that he just subjugated. Turkiye might also be excluded given its attempt to expand its influence eastward at Russia’s expense, as could minor US trade partners like the Central Asian Republics as long as they curtail trade with Russia.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether he’ll tariff China and India, if they don’t cut off or at least curtail their resource-centric imports from Russia, that is. They’re Russia’s top trading partners, which collectively form the RIC core of BRICS, yet they trade more with the US (with whom they’re in ongoing trade negotiations) than with Russia. China and India are also some of the world’s largest economies so the US’ imposition of 100% tariffs could destabilize the global economy and raise prices for Americans.
Trump just clinched a lopsided trade deal with the EU that turned it into the US’ largest-ever vassal state, which might embolden him to tariff China and/or India despite their ongoing trade talks if they defy him should he believe that this new arrangement can help reduce the blowback to the US. He’s therefore calculating that China and/or India will at least curtail energy imports from Russia, whether voluntarily or under tariff duress, thus hitting its coffers and making Putin more pliable to concessions with time.
Shhh don’t tell Moshe Trumpstein (MIGA) but 1945-1973 is long gone and never to return.
The Long March Fundamental Transformation has made America 2.0. (sad trombone)
Honk, honk.