This article outlines possibilities without coming to conclusions, which is commendable in a situation like this one characterized by insufficient information. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:
One of them must have offered more concessions to the other.
Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov confirmed on Thursday that Putin and Trump could meet as soon as next week following Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s “highly productive” three-hour-long meeting with his boss. A venue has already been agreed upon too. This comes a day before the expiry of Trump’s shortened deadline to Putin. It’s still unclear whether Trump will impose more sanctions on Russia and up to 100% tariffs on its trading partners, however, but he just doubled India’s tariffs to 50% on the same day.
In any case, the question on everyone’s mind is what’s responsible for the upcoming Putin-Trump summit, namely which of them offered the most concessions to the other and why. Coming right before the expiry of Trump’s deadline to Putin, some observers believe that the latter is therefore capitulating, but it’s also possible that the “TACO” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”) theory will be proven. There are several arguments for and against each of these two schools of thought.
This analysis here from early March enumerated the five reasons why Putin might agree to a ceasefire and the five reasons why he might not. As for why he might: Russia wants to avert disproportionate dependence on China; it also wants to beat China to the chase with the “New Détente”; the “New Détente” could geopolitically revolutionize the world; additional (and even secret) terms might be attached to the ceasefire; and Putin might really believe that Trump is serious about further escalating.
At the same time, he might still hold firm in his opposition to a ceasefire unless his terms from June 2024 are first met because: Russia wants to liberate all occupied territories; the front lines might soon collapse to Russia’s benefit; Russia wants to scare away Western peacekeepers from deploying to Ukraine; some of the Russian public don’t want a ceasefire; and Putin might really believe that Trump is bluffing about further escalating per the “TACO” theory.
The RF advances on all fronts?
The going on a third army for 404?
The other two are KIA.
NATO realized they don’t have 250,000 troops?
Not all troops are the same, you can have Volkssturm cannon fodder or professionals under contract.