Has Putin Learned the Lessons of the Battle of Debaltseve and Minsk II? By Larry C. Johnson

What was the primary lesson Putin learned? Never trust Western governments bearing “peace” agreements. From Larry C. Johnson at sonar21com:

I will answer my question right up front: Yes! The reaction of the West, especially that of Donald Trump, to Russia’s current offensive all along the line of contact, is reminiscent of the panic that seized the West in 2015 following Ukraine’s loss in the Battle of Debaltseve. That battle came about in part because of the failure of Minsk I, and was the impetus for Minsk II.

So what does this have to do with the current situation in Ukraine? I believe that the primary reason Donald Trump dramatically shortened his 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to 10 days, was because of the dire situation Ukraine now faces all along the line of contact. Debaltseve was just one battle, which Ukraine lost. The current battles underway are far larger and encompass the following agglomerations:

Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): Intense battles are ongoing near Toretsk, including Ukrainian advances within Katerynivka and Shcherbynivka, and Russian advances in nearby areas such as Rusyn Yar and Poltavka. Russian and Ukrainian forces are contesting several settlements along key axes northwest and west of Toretsk. Elements of Russia’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by artillery and drones, are actively engaged in the area.

Pokrovsk: Pokrovsk faces concentrated Russian assaults and is currently a focal point of fighting, with Russian forces intensifying attacks across the front. Ukrainian defenders confront urgent threats within and around the city as Russia adapts new offensive tactics.

Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Russia recently captured Chasiv Yar, a heavily fortified eastern city. This victory allows Russia to target Ukraine’s so-called “fortress belt,” a network of defensive strongholds, and opens further offensive opportunities in the region.

Zaporizhia Region: Russia maintains high-intensity bombardments—over 400 airstrikes on 16 settlements—leading to heavy casualties and destruction, marking continued contestation in this southern front.

Let’s first review the importance of the Battle of Debaltseve, which was fought between January and February 2015, and marked a major setback for Ukraine the Donbas region. Its importance stems from several key factors:

1. Strategic Location: Debaltseve was a critical transportation hub, particularly for its railway junction connecting the Russian-backed separatist-controlled cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Control over Debaltseve allowed influence over supply lines and movement in the region, making it a focal point for both Ukrainian forces and Russian/separatist forces.

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