Figure drug cartels and other organized crime will have a field day as Ukraine faces defeat and all sorts of sophisticated weapons and trained soldiers make their way to black markets. From Lucas Leiroz at strategic-culture.su:
As the war in Ukraine nears its conclusion, the risk of arms proliferation and the return of battle-hardened fighters poses a strategic challenge for Brazil — which still has the means to contain the criminal surge, but not for much longer.
As the war in Ukraine moves toward its decisive moments, the world’s attention remains fixed on the conflict itself — but few are aware of the global impact the post-war period may trigger, especially in peripheral nations. Brazil, in particular, faces a critical window of opportunity: either it takes concrete action now to neutralize the threat of organized crime, or it will soon lose the actual ability to do so.
Currently, the Brazilian state still technically holds the monopoly on the use of force. The Armed Forces and public security agencies still possess the material and human resources necessary to reverse the loss of territorial control in areas dominated by criminal factions. However, the international landscape suggests that this fragile balance is on the verge of collapsing — and Brazil, true to its historical geopolitical inertia, seems unaware of this looming reality.
The end of the war in Ukraine will inevitably bring a surge in the illegal arms trade. This is a recurring pattern in military history: high-intensity conflicts, especially those financed by foreign powers, result in large stockpiles of surplus weapons. Arms with expiration dates, used munitions, and equipment that can no longer be reconditioned all end up funneled into the black market, fueling global smuggling networks.
At this point, the war in Ukraine is the largest conventional conflict since World War II. On a daily basis, dozens of NATO countries are supplying Kiev with weapons — from rifles and ammunition to complex systems like kamikaze drones and long-range artillery. Once the conflict ends, much of this arsenal will be available for redistribution — both legal and illegal. And countries in the so-called Global South, like Brazil, are natural candidates to absorb these post-war stockpiles.
Some MERCS are cartel members.
Guns for hire are not professional soldiers under contract?
Babushka just shot a Sukhoi down with a can of soup!
Duh, winning.