Trump has undone decades of diplomatic effort to get India in the U.S. camp as a counterweight to China. From Joseph Solis-Mullen at libertarianinstitute.org:
For more than two decades, Washington labored to bring India closer—easing sanctions, opening high-tech trade, recognizing India as a responsible nuclear power, and embedding it in U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy. From President George W. Bush’s civil nuclear deal and Barack Obama’s endorsement of a United Nations Security Council seat, to the Quad revival under Donald Trump’s first term and the technology initiatives of the Joe Biden years, U.S. policy showed remarkable bipartisan continuity. The goal was clear: position India as a democratic counterweight to China.
Yet, since January 2025, President Trump has reversed course, to the chagrin of China hawks, liberal internationalists and realists alike.
Looking back on everything Washington has done since the end of the Cold War one can hardly blame them for slapping their collective foreheads.
- 1998–2000: Sanctions and Outreach
- U.S. sanctions imposed after India’s nuclear tests (1998) were gradually eased.
- President Bill Clinton’s 2000 state visit to India marked a reset, emphasizing partnership beyond non-proliferation.
- 2004–2005: Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP)
- Opened cooperation in civilian nuclear, space, missile defense, and high-tech trade.
- This culminated in the July 2005 framework agreement that paved the way for a civil nuclear deal.
- 2008: U.S.–India Civil Nuclear Agreement (“123 Agreement”)
- U.S. secures a Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver (September 2008).
- Congress passes H.R. 7081; deal signed October 2008.
- A watershed with de facto recognition of India as a responsible nuclear state.
- 2011–2018: Export-control easing
- 2011–2017: BIS rules progressively liberalize dual-use tech exports.
- 2016: U.S. backs India into MTCR.
- 2017: India joins Wassenaar Arrangement.
- 2018: India joins Australia Group; U.S. grants STA-1 status, easing defense tech sales.
- Defense Agreements and Status Upgrades (2016–2020):
- 2016: India designated a Major Defense Partner.
- 2016 LEMOA: Logistics exchange pact for base access.
- 2018 COMCASA: Secure communications deal.
- 2020 BECA: Geospatial intel-sharing.
- 2+2 Dialogue launched (2018): Annual cabinet-level strategic talks.
- Simultaneous Efforts Taken by Washington to Build a Multilateral Indo-Pacific Architecture:
- 2010: Barack Obama endorses India for a permanent UNSC seat.
- 2015: U.S.–India Joint Strategic Vision for Asia-Pacific & Indian Ocean.
- 2017: Quad revived (United States, India, Japan, Australia).
- 2020: Quad Malabar naval exercises.
- Tech and Industrial Cooperation (2023–2024):
- iCET (2023): Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies launched.
- INDUS-X (2023): Defense-industrial collaboration platform.
- GE F414 jet engine co-production with HAL; MQ-9B drones in pipeline.
- Artemis Accords (2023): India signs on with NASA–ISRO NISAR mission.
- 2023: Resolution of six WTO disputes; expansion of semiconductors, critical minerals, telecom partnerships.
And despite predictions that, just as he had during his first administration, Trump would continue to handle India and Modi as desired partners, Trump Two has seen nothing of the kind.
There goes the H-1 B replacement program.
That’s a nice street you have there, it would be a shame if someone shit on it goes the LOL Vivek dramatic face meme.