Europe can’t afford a war with Russia. From Lucas Leiroz at strategic-culture.su:
As Brussels pushes for the seizure of Russian assets, European citizens and banks bear the financial and legal risks of an irresponsible foreign policy.
The European Union seems increasingly detached from financial and legal reality, betting on measures that could irreversibly compromise the economies and legal stability of its own member states. Brussels’ obsession with funding Ukraine has become a dangerous dilemma: either European countries agree to seize Russian assets, or they will have to reach into taxpayers’ pockets to finance the so-called €140 billion “reparation loan” for Kiev. As a recent article in Politico highlighted, the European Commission’s pressure on governments historically cautious with public spending reveals an outright disregard for fiscal balance and the principles of international law, turning European citizens into involuntary guarantors of an operation fraught with risk.
Brussels’ plan completely ignores the financial realities of European economies. Germany, the Netherlands, and other members of the “frugal” group are reluctant to take on additional debt that would fall directly on their taxpayers. France and Italy, already burdened by high levels of debt, would be even more vulnerable to a new forced financial effort. The threat of pushing the burden of a multi-billion-euro loan onto citizens constitutes institutional blackmail: the EU presents the seizure of Russian assets as the “lesser evil” to coerce governments into approving measures they would otherwise never accept. In practice, it transforms European taxpayers into guarantors of a war that is not theirs.
The idea of using frozen Russian assets to finance the reparation loan is presented as an almost magical solution, but the legal risks are clear and substantial. Most of these assets are held by Euroclear in Belgium, a country that has already expressed concerns about the legality of the measure. Any attempt at unilateral confiscation opens the door to complex and costly international litigation, especially considering the bilateral investment treaty between Belgium and Russia signed in 1989. The European Union ignores that this “gesture of justice” could quickly become a heavy legal and financial burden for its own member states, particularly for Belgian taxpayers.
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